Business News July 12
The increase in natural gas market demand is mainly concentrated in three areas: city gas, industrial fuel, and natural gas power generation. In order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the natural gas industry, it is necessary to unswervingly promote the whole industry chain reforms such as natural gas mineral rights management, separation of network transportation, coordinated imports, and market-based pricing in the medium and long term, so as to give full play to the importance of natural gas in the clean and low-carbon energy. The role of a bridge is to gradually realize the goal of optimizing the energy structure and improving the atmospheric environment.
1. Natural gas is the dominant fuel in the urban gas field, and urban gas maintains steady growth
Since entering the 21st century, China's city gas has maintained rapid growth. From 2004 to 2014, the gas-consuming population increased by an average of 24 million per year. In 2012, the gas-consuming population surpassed liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and city gas became the largest living fuel. In 2014, China’s urban gas consumption population was approximately 310 million, and the gasification rate of urban residents reached 40%, but it was still far below the national level (90% in the United States and 85% in the United Kingdom); the per capita gas consumption was 23 cubic meters, only This is 1/19 and 1/33 of the per capita gas consumption in the United States and Britain (428 cubic meters per capita in the United States and 752 cubic meters per capita in the United Kingdom). There is a huge potential for gas demand in cities in China.
2. The gas-to-electricity ratio is much lower than the world average, and power generation will become the main driving force for China's natural gas growth in the future
In 2015, China used 29.4 billion cubic meters of gas for power generation, an increase of 12.2% over the previous year, and the demand for power generation gas increased rapidly. In 2015, China's installed capacity of gas power was 66 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.4% of the total installed capacity; gas power generation was 165.8 billion kWh, accounting for 3% of the total power generation of the whole society, far below the world average of about 30%. In the future, under the promotion of multiple factors such as resource supply guarantee, gas turbine technology progress, and high environmental protection requirements, natural gas power generation will become the main direction of China's natural gas utilization. Natural gas will become an important part of the power source fuel structure. The environmental protection advantages of gas power will be in the power grid. The safety and security role of peak shaving will be further brought into play.
3. Under the rigid constraints of the atmospheric environment and the total amount of energy, the implementation of "gas instead of coal" in industrial fuels has huge room for development
At present, China’s industrial fuel energy is dominated by coal, accounting for 72.7% in 2014; in 2015, industrial gas used 57.6 billion cubic meters, down 5.4% from the previous year, mainly because the price of coal and other competing energy sources fell sharply, and natural gas appeared "Reverse substitution" phenomenon. In 2014, natural gas accounted for about 9.8% of China's industrial fuel energy consumption, which was far lower than the 40%-50% of the United Kingdom and the United States. With the implementation of the national carbon emission policy, and driven by the National Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and other policies, compared with coal-fired industrial boilers/kilns, "gas instead of coal" has obvious environmental protection and technical advantages.
4. Natural gas is competitive in the field of public transportation, but policy support needs to be strengthened
Transportation gas is mainly concentrated in the fields of automobiles and ships. In 2014, China had 154 million vehicles and 4 million natural gas vehicles, accounting for 2.6%; the number of LNG ships was 64, which is still in the pilot stage. Gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil are the main alternatives for vehicles and ships to replace gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil. From the perspective of the whole life cycle, energy efficiency is high and environmental protection advantages are obvious. Gas buses and taxis are more economical, but they face fierce competition from electric vehicles. , The vigorous development of natural gas vehicles requires the linkage of gas and oil prices, environmental protection drive, and enjoy the same subsidy policy as electric vehicles.
5. The natural gas chemical market will stabilize and decline, which is an important supplement to expand the utilization of natural gas
In 2015, China's chemical industry used 28.2 billion cubic meters of gas, down 6.5% from the previous year, accounting for 14.8% of total natural gas consumption. Affected by the sharp drop in coal prices, the growth of chemical gas consumption in recent years has been weak, and some fertilizer and methanol users have suspended or reduced production. The proportion of total natural gas consumption has continued to decline, but compared with the proportion of chemical gas consumption in major countries in the world Still on the high side.